S And P All Time High – Those who follow my personal Twitter account will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm, where I pick 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet about. I’ll usually pick a few themes to explore with the chart, but sometimes it’s just a chart selection that will add to your perspective and help inform your own position – whether it’s bearish, bullish or something else!

The purpose of this annotation is to add additional context and color. It’s worth noting that the goal of #ChartStorm isn’t necessarily to come to a particular point of view, but to highlight charts and topics worth paying attention to. But it’s inevitable that if you pay attention to the charts, they help tell the story as you’ll see below.

S And P All Time High

1. Another Key Level Cleared: It may be an understatement to say it’s been a rough week for the S&P 500. US large caps rose daily and crossed the 3300 barrier. In terms of momentum, a potential negative divergence is resolved by price increases.

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What’s next? All-time highs can be seen, but we are entering a tough season – from the end of August to September there can be volatility. Corporate earnings that beat estimates by the most in 12 years may not support share prices for much longer as most reporting seasons have come and gone.

However, the SPX remains above the main moving averages. The rising 50dma is approaching 3200 this week, while the 200dma has dipped slightly below Friday’s close of 3351 by about 10%. It’s amazing to see 200dma in isolation – little do you know there was a 35% drop earlier this year.

Bottom line: The S&P 500 continues to move. We haven’t seen many significant pullbacks in the last 6 weeks. Although the area around the high may provide some resistance, there hasn’t been much trading activity between 3350-3400, so overall supply shouldn’t be too high.

2. The bearish range appears to have reversed, and now there’s an interesting little bullish range going on: The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average hit their highest level in nearly two months last Friday, confirming the recent rise in share prices. The sudden surge on June 8 was an incredible departure from some of the biggest pullbacks of the previous few months.

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Large and small companies continue to lead the market day by day. In the case of the S&P 500, bulls would certainly like to see the percentage of components above their respective 200dma higher if the index reaches new record highs. In the short term, however, a short breakout in breadth should help support the index as several stocks turn the corner on the long-term upward trend.

Bottom Line: The percentage of stocks within the SPX above their 200dma is below year-to-date levels, but recent moves indicate that more stocks are participating in the index’s gains.

3. Fear and Greed Index Goes Further into Greed Mode: CNN’s Fear and Greed Index is getting a lot of play on financial Twitter. What is correct? CNN looks at 7 indicators: stock price momentum (price vs. 125-day moving average), stock price strength (number of stocks hitting 52-week highs and lows on the NYSE), breadth (up volume vs. low volume), equity put-call ratio , interest rates between investment grade and junk bonds, VIX and finally the yield difference between stocks and government bonds. So it’s a quantitative method of measuring fear and greed (aka emotions). CNN’s index rose to its highest level since the start of 2020, suggesting more investors are feeling greedy than scared. What’s driving the latest wave? This could be the equity put-call ratio – we wrote about this indicator in a recent ChartStorm. It is extremely short; Which means investors buy more call options than put options.

What do some other indicators indicate? The amplitude metric was found to be “too greedy” given the increasing participation discussed earlier. Also, the price range in the ‘coveted’ zone is the 125-day moving average (currently 12.4% – quite high). The only index in ‘neutral’ is the VIX, which is not above the long-term average (currently 22.21).

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Conclusion: Bulls and bears are driven by fear and greed. Always. According to CNN’s Index, the euphoria in the S&P 500 peaked in early 2020. The fun was short-lived as share prices fell in February and March. Extreme panic quickly gripped the market in mid-March – the fourth quarter of 2018 saw a similar decline. This was a strong boost in investor sentiment as many market indices rose in the last 4-5 months. But have they turned too far, too fast?

4. Similarly, we are seeing higher volume of leveraged long equity ETFs (relative to leveraged short equity). Jump in this index = increase in short-term risk. Another warning flag being raised is the ratio of trading volume in long and short leveraged ETFs. We follow this indicator in the topdown chart and it is at the highest level since the beginning of 2020. The classic story of the year – investors are at home in quarantine with little to do, so they just take their time, open a phone, a free trading app and have fun.

And what’s more fun than leveraged ETFs?? As the stock market rose, the long side trade rose and it ended. Notice how the red line in the chart below drops below 1.0 during the spring – it doesn’t happen often. The last time it fell close to 1.0 was in Q4 2018 at the bottom of the market. Now it’s closer to 3.0 – the ratio usually doesn’t stay above 3.0 for long. So traders beware.

Bottom Line: Leverage ETFs seem to come and go these days, but that doesn’t mean investors don’t enjoy getting their fix by trading them intraday. Today’s market mechanics make it more and more likely that these products will be phased out. Comparing long and short trading volume is a useful measure of market sentiment—another sign of greed.

My Downside Targets For The S&p 500

5. Meanwhile, investors are moving out of US equity funds and ETFs (perhaps cashing out funds in separate names now that all PMs are in the top tier!) Thanks to @C_Barraud for this Bloomberg chart using ICI data – S&P 500 , showing its stellar run as capital outflows continue. Exiting equity funds and ETFs has been an interesting topic for the US market over the past few years despite the significant increase in value.

Is it possible to simply transfer money to a separate name from the fund? In the chart below, Bloomberg notes that July marked the largest single monthly outflow since early 2008. However, that may be less of a crime since the US stock market is worth significantly more today than it was in early 2008. But just a few months since 2008 have been similar in terms of returns from mutual funds and ETFs for US stocks.

Bottom line: Over the past four years, money has steadily flowed out of U.S. equity funds, and July 2020 was the biggest jump in more than a decade. Could this portend bad things for future stock prices? It’s hard to say – interestingly, the monthly fund flows earlier this year were nothing to write home about despite the massive volatility in the stock market.

6. On a related note, here’s everyone’s favorite chart of cumulative net flows for all US equity funds and ETFs against the S&P500. Referring to Figure 5, we show the data cumulatively in a top-down diagram – see Figure 6 below. The blue line is the cumulative flow of US equity funds with the S&P 500 in black. Signs of outflows began in late 2015, but after a major stock market rally in 2017 with low volatility, the trend picked up in early 2018. Interestingly, investors decided to start withdrawing money from the fund after a good run.

Es_f (s&p 500) Made A New All Time High After Elliott Wave Flat

You would think that a good market and volatility would push investors away from mutual funds and ETFs. Could it be that investors actually got a little overconfident and pulled money out of their index funds to trade single-name stocks? In total, nearly $500 billion has fled U.S. stock funds and ETFs over the past 2 1/2 years. The blue line is also flat at 2013-2014 levels.

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